Elon Musk says Tesla could sell 5 million cars a year by 2030, but sales have fallen two years running and the target needs about 25 percent growth every year.
Elon Musk told investors Tesla has a good shot at selling 5 million cars a year by around 2030. That is about three times what it sold in 2025. Sales have dropped two years in a row, so the goal needs a sharp turnaround, according to a Verge analysis of the company's earnings call on Wednesday.
On the call, Musk said Tesla was aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030 and has a good shot of reaching it. That is lower than his own earlier promise. In 2020, he said Tesla would sell 20 million cars a year by 2030.
Tesla delivered 1,808,581 cars in 2023, its peak. It delivered 1,789,226 in 2024 and 1,636,129 in 2025. So far this year it has sold 1,324,681. It needs 311,448 more in the fourth quarter to avoid a third straight yearly drop. Analysts expect 1.82 million for the full year, which would be a record.
To reach 5 million from 2025 levels, sales would need to grow about 25 percent every year. Tesla last grew faster than that in 2023, when sales rose 37.7 percent.
Musk's case rests on self-driving. Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla's head of autonomy, said the company could launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving in the second quarter of 2027. Lars Moravy, who leads vehicle engineering, said Tesla would try to deliver the first Cybercabs, which have no steering wheel or pedals, before the end of the year. Buyers would likely be fleet owners. That would open a new sales channel beyond individual drivers.
More than 96 percent of Tesla's sales come from two cars, the Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla ended the Model S and Model X earlier this year to free up its Fremont, California, plant for humanoid robots. The Cybertruck has missed its early sales targets by a wide margin. Musk himself called the Roadster a small project that will not move the needle financially.
The Semi, a large electric truck now ramping up in Nevada, could add tens of thousands of heavy vehicles a year. But the Verge says Musk's real hopes sit with the Cybercab. That depends on government approval, which varies by state and country. Federal regulators are already looking at whether Tesla skirted the law by rolling out the Cybercab in Austin.
For anyone who owns Tesla stock or counts on its self-driving promises, treat the 5 million target with caution and watch real sales numbers instead.
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