Anthropic's stock market debut could set the mood for AI stocks

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI assistant, is getting ready to sell shares to the public. CNBC's Jim Cramer says how that goes could shape the mood for AI stocks as a whole. "Without it, I don't see how the AI-related stocks can make a real recovery," he said on Monday.

What is happening

An IPO, or initial public offering, is when a company first sells its shares on the stock market. Anthropic filed its paperwork two weeks ago. The Wall Street Journal reports the company will meet with major investors this week. It is aiming to start trading as early as Thursday or Friday of next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why Cramer thinks it matters

Cramer's argument is about who pays for all the AI spending. Companies are putting billions into AI chips and data centers. He says a few AI developers, Anthropic among them, sit at the end of that chain and must eventually earn enough to justify it. He called it possibly "one of the most consequential IPOs in history."

The SpaceX link

Cramer used SpaceX as an example of how tied together this business is. Much of its recent revenue growth comes from renting computing power to customers, including Google and Anthropic. Google pays roughly $900 million a month. Anthropic's commitment has grown from $1.25 billion a month to more than $3 billion, according to its IPO prospectus.

Those contracts help SpaceX buy Nvidia chips. If the IPO fails, Cramer says Anthropic might not have the cash to honor its contracts. Estimates for SpaceX, Nvidia and other computing suppliers would then have to come down.

The warning sign

Investor appetite looks weaker than it did. Anthropic's possible value has reportedly fallen from as much as $2 trillion earlier this fall to as low as $1 trillion. That followed last week's tech sell-off, driven by worries that a Democratic wave in the midterm elections will slow new data center building. Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia have all invested in Anthropic, so their earnings are sensitive to its value.

What to do

• Check whether your funds or retirement accounts hold Alphabet, Amazon or Nvidia.
• Expect bigger price swings in AI-linked stocks around the debut.
• Remember the timing is reported, not confirmed. Plans can change.

What is not known yet is the final price of the shares, the exact trading date, and whether the IPO goes ahead as planned.