Fed expected to hold rates today as Alphabet and Microsoft report

The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2pm ET today, and it is all but certain to keep rates where they are. Later, after the closing bell, Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings. Together, the two events could set the tone for markets, and for borrowing costs, in the weeks ahead.

What the Fed is expected to do

A hold means the Fed leaves its main interest rate unchanged. For most people, that means loan and savings rates stay put for now. The catch is inflation, which is the rise in everyday prices. Policymakers are citing the AI-driven demand boom as a factor pushing prices up, alongside energy. That could keep borrowing costs high for longer. Stock futures are holding steady, and the market looks set for a cautious open.

Why tech earnings matter today

Earnings reports show how much money a company made and how its business is doing. Alphabet and Microsoft will give another pulse check on AI, meaning whether the heavy spending and demand around it are paying off. Their results are not out yet, so nothing is known about how either company did.

Overnight, there was a positive signal from Asia. South Korea's main stock index spiked after SK Hynix, a major chipmaker, reported third-quarter operating profit well above expectations. The company also returned $25 billion to shareholders.

Other numbers from the morning

• UBS reported a near 30% jump in pretax profit (profit before taxes) for the quarter.
• Deutsche Bank posted its third straight quarter of record profits, with assets under management at $2.2 trillion.
• Robinhood missed expectations as the crypto slump hurt profit. Its stock is down almost 40% from last October's highs.
• Jio Platforms rose over 20% on its first trading day in India, in the country's largest-ever IPO, which raised $3.2 billion.

Politics in the background

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks with CNBC's Brian Sullivan at 4pm ET about the economy and the midterm elections. Those elections are a week away and are dominated by worries over affordability. President Trump has pledged $5,000 to every adult citizen if Republicans win both the House and Senate. He joked at a Texas rally that the money would buy little more than a hamburger and a small dessert at Mar-a-Lago.

Abroad, Brazil's Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has fled to the U.S. In Israel, exit polls suggest no clear winner. Official results are due November 4.

What happens next

The Fed decision lands at 2pm ET, the Alphabet and Microsoft reports come after the close, and the Bessent interview airs at 4pm ET. The wording of the Fed's statement and the AI comments from the two tech giants are the details to watch.