A Sierra Club analysis says gas plants built for data centers could raise US power plant CO2 42 percent by 2030, erasing 15 years of cuts.
A new analysis from the Sierra Club, an environmental group, says US power plants could release 42 percent more carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2030 than they did in 2025. The cause is a rush to build fossil fuel plants to feed data centers. That would essentially wipe out 15 years of pollution cuts.
The Sierra Club estimates power sector CO2 would rise by 618 million tons by the end of the decade if planned AI projects get built. It compares that to the yearly electricity use of 128,788,523 homes. Net US greenhouse gas emissions fell from about 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to about 5.35 billion in 2025. They started rising again last year as data centers pushed up electricity demand.
The Trump administration is encouraging fossil fuel buildout for data centers while rolling back pollution rules and stalling renewable energy projects. A separate report this month from the Environmental Defense Fund says the US is planning to build more fossil fuel capacity than it has in a decade.
Other estimates are lower. A June academic study found data centers and crypto mines could lift power sector emissions by 28 percent by 2030. That study compares against a world with no data center growth, not against 2025, so the two figures are not a direct match.
The final result depends on how many planned data center projects actually get built and what kind of technology powers them. For everyday readers, more data center demand can push up electricity costs and emissions where you live, so local plant and data center plans are worth watching.
Data center growth could reverse years of US emissions progress, and the size of the rise depends on which projects get built and how they are powered.
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