Anthropic's reported revenue still jumped last quarter, but one analyst says growth slowed sharply from July to September. Here is why that matters beyond one company.
Anthropic, the maker of the Claude AI assistant, reportedly brought in $16.8 billion in the third quarter. That is a huge number. But an analyst who broke it down month by month says the company barely grew from July to September, and that the pace of new growth is cooling.
The figures come from what Anthropic reportedly shared with investors, as reported by the New York Times, plus estimates from analyst Henry Blodget. Revenue was $4.8 billion in the first quarter, $11.6 billion in the second and $16.8 billion in the third.
Anthropic also reportedly had a $65 billion annualized run rate in July. That means July revenue, multiplied out over a full year. It works out to about $5.4 billion for the month.
If July was $5.4 billion, about $11.4 billion is left for August and September combined. That is roughly $5.7 billion a month. By this estimate, the company grew only modestly after July. Blodget calls these back-of-the-envelope figures, so treat them as rough.
Anthropic also did not share an annualized number based on September. Blodget reads that as a hint the figure would not have looked impressive next to July. That is his interpretation, not something the company said.
The slowdown could be seasonal, since August tends to be quiet. Blodget notes that September should have bounced back. It could also mean Anthropic cannot keep up with demand, which he calls a good problem to have.
The third explanation is the one to watch. Spending on AI may be cooling, partly because some companies are using cheaper AI models from China for some of their needs. Blodget says usage data suggests this is happening.
Companies like CoreWeave, which rent out computing power for AI, have borrowed tens of billions of dollars. They did so betting that demand would keep soaring. Their stocks are reportedly falling, and interest rates are rising, which makes that debt costlier to carry.
If AI spending growth is slowing, Blodget expects investor excitement and the building boom behind it to cool too. For everyday readers, that could mean shifts in AI prices, cheaper options for businesses and more swings in tech stocks and AI-linked investments.
Anthropic has not explained the pattern in public, at least in this material. The monthly numbers are estimates, and the cause of the slowdown is still a guess. Anthropic's valuation in a possible IPO, a first sale of shares to the public, will depend on how fast it grows from here.
Anthropic is still growing fast, but one analyst says the pace slowed after July, which could ease AI prices and shake AI-linked stocks.
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